About

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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US Stock Market Snapshot

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Sunday, 14 January 2018

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning January 15

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2786, 1.57%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
10681, 1.16%
Neutral **
Neutral
China Shanghai Index
3429, 2.56%
Bullish
Bullish
Gold
1335, 0.95%
Bullish
Bullish
WTIC Crude
64.30, 4.65%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
3.22, -0.34%
Neutral
Neutral
Baltic Dry Index
1303, -2.83%
Bearish
Bearish
Euro
1.2199, 1.41%
Bullish
Bullish
Dollar/Yen
111.00, -1.84%
Bearish
Bearish
Dow Transports
11373, 4.23%
Bullish
Bullish
High Yield (ETF)
36.86, -0.46%
Neutral
Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.55%, 3.07%
Bearish
Bearish
Nyse Summation Index
710, 11.01%
Neutral
Bullish
US Vix
10.16, 10.20%
Bearish
Bearish
Skew
125
Neutral
Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500
2707, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2649, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2500, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
10510, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
10367, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
9891, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
13.73, 4.73%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
63.52, 0.36%
Neutral
Neutral


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
9
10
Bearish Indications
4
5
Outlook
Bullish
Bullish
Observation
The S and P 500 and the Nifty made new highs last week. Indicators are bullish.
A major market top is near. Time to watch those stops.
On the Horizon
Australia – Employment data, China – GDP, Industrial production, Euro Zone – CPI, UK – CPI, Retail sales, U.S – Oil inventories, Canada – Rate decision
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

stock market signals january 15

The S and P 500 and the Nifty made new highs last week. Signals are bullish for the upcoming week. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in and sentiment indicators are back in complacency mode. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Divergences in high yields and surging bond yields are flashing some warning signs. The critical levels to watch are 2795 (up) and 2775(down) on the S & P and 10750 (up) and 10600 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.


Sunday, 7 January 2018

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning January 08

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2743, 2.60%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
10559, 0.27%
Neutral **
Neutral
China Shanghai Index
3392, 2.56%
Bullish
Bullish
Gold
1322, 0.99%
Bullish
Bullish
WTIC Crude
61.44, 1.69%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
3.23, -2.15%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic Dry Index
1341, -1.83%
Bearish
Bearish
Euro
1.2029, 0.20%
Neutral
Neutral
Dollar/Yen
113.08, 0.37%
Neutral
Neutral
Dow Transports
10912, 2.82%
Bullish
Bullish
High Yield (ETF)
37.03, 0.84%
Bullish
Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.48%, 2.95%
Bearish
Bearish
Nyse Summation Index
639, 14.27%
Neutral
Bullish
US Vix
9.22, -16.49%
Bullish
Bullish
Skew
127
Neutral
Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500
2681, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2630, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2489, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
10413, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
10340, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
9851, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
13.11, 3.49%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
63.29, -0.85%
Neutral
Bullish


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
9
12
Bearish Indications
3
4
Outlook
Bullish
Bullish
Observation
The S and P 500 and the Nifty made new highs last week. Indicators are bullish.
The market is topping. Time to watch those stops.
On the Horizon
Australia – Retail sales, Euro Zone – ECB minutes, CPI, UK – Manufacturing production data, U.S – Oil inventories, PPI, CPI, Retail sales
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

stock market signals january 08

The S and P 500 and the Nifty made new highs last week. Signals are bullish for the upcoming week. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in and sentiment indicators are back in complacency mode. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. The critical levels to watch are 2755 (up) and 2735(down) on the S & P and 10650 (up) and 10450 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.


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My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.