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Ahead of the Curve provides you with analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Sunday, 8 April 2018

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning April 09

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2605, -1.38%
Bearish
Bearish
Nifty
10332, 2.15%
Neutral **
Bullish
China Shanghai Index
3131, -0.93%
Bearish
Bearish
Gold
1336, 0.66%
Bullish
Bullish
WTIC Crude
62.06, -4.43%
Bearish
Bearish
Copper
3.06, 1.09%
Bullish
Bullish
Baltic Dry Index
953, -11.76%
Bearish
Bearish
Euro
1.2293, -0.12%
Neutral
Neutral
Dollar/Yen
106.91, 0.47%
Neutral
Neutral
Dow Transports
10146, -2.41%
Bearish
Bearish
High Yield (ETF)
35.74, 0.11%
Neutral
Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.78%, 1.24%
Bearish
Bearish
Nyse Summation Index
31, 100.91%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
21.49, 7.61%
Bearish
Bearish
Skew
122
Neutral
Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500
2679, Below
Bearish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2710, Below
Bearish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2594, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
10222, Below
Neutral
Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty
10464, Below
Neutral
Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty
10195, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
14.75, -6.41%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
64.89, -0.21%
Neutral
Neutral


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
4
4
Bearish Indications
9
9
Outlook
Bearish
Bearish
Observation
The S and P 500 fell and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bearish.
The markets have made important tops. Time to watch those stops.
On the Horizon
Euro Zone – ECB monetary policy minutes, U.S – PPI, CPI, Oil inventories, FOMC minutes
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral


stock market signals april 09

The S and P 500 fell and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bearish for the upcoming week. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in fully. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. The yen and other safe haven asset classes are flashing warning signs. Indian market volatility is still well below US market volatility as the nifty is close to resistance while the US market is at major support so there is complacency and some catch up left on the down side in India. The critical levels to watch are 2615 (up) and 2590 (down) on the S & P and 10400 (up) and 10250 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

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